During the cold war (USA and USSR) China was internally struggling between democracy and communism represented by Kuomintang and Mao Zedong respectively. In 1949, Mao had grown strong and a major coup had overthrown democracy in China.
The newly emerged communist party under the leadership of Mao had decided to isolate China from the world. They imagined a self-reliant China. However, this was not successful. Extreme poverty spread across China with frequent famines making things worse for the people.
Only in 1978, after the demise of Mao Zedong, China reformed its policies under the leadership of Deng Xiaoping. China had now moved towards integrating itself with the global economy by creating SEZs (initially 4) which played by different rules from the rest of the country. The size of the SEZs created are as large as megacities. In these areas, China had begun intense manufacturing. Growth drove the Chinese economy so fast that the per capita income which was hardly $156 in 1978 had jumped to about $294 in 1985 (almost double). This led the government in creating more SEZs which now stands at around 60 in number and the per capita income of the Chinese as of 2018 is $9771(more than 62 times of 1978 PCI). This was one of the greatest impacts of globalization on the Chinese economy.
During the 1970s and '80s, the USA wanted to make allies in ASIA to counter the USSR because of which it had supported the Chinese. Now, the tables have turned and China itself is entering into a cold war with the USA fighting to become the greatest economic and military power in the world.
Trade Relations
Bilateral trade between India and China is humongous (US$90 billion) with the trade deficit close to US$63 billion in China's favor.
Among Indians, there is a belief that if we stop buying Chinese electronic items and ban Chinese apps we can stop Chinese imports to India. But we need to understand that India has been a major market for Chinese exports of not only electronic items but also mineral fuels, pharmaceutical ingredients, electrical machinery, furniture & related products, iron & steel, etc. For example, 90% of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) used by the Indian pharma industry are sourced from China.
Benefits:
- Some products from China are relatively cheaper than the world market. It helps the poors to experience some luxury at cheap prices. For example: If china wasn't selling cheap smart phones, a large section of our society would still be depirved of smart phones and dreams like digital India would not become a reality so soon.
- Although it is believed that Chinese goods are of low quality, it isn't true. It has been observed that the Chinese reduce the quality of the goods on purpose to meet the low prices. For example: Initially the MI phones were considered cheap smart phones but now the high end models of these phones have prices at par with Samsung or Sony because they have upgraded their features which is probably better than their competitors.
- The Chinese have provided a competitive market to the Indian's.
Having these in mind it would be unfair to say that the import has had only negative impacts on India.
But with the origin of COVID-19 tracing back to Wuhan market of China, angry Indians were driven by nationalist sentiments also because of the warlike situation at the border and hence we have been seeing the uproar of social media asking people to boycott all Chinese goods with several influencers making use of their reach to spread the news. For this to be possible India needs to:
- Improve its manufacturing capabilities before boycotting Chinese goods, which is far from reality. We are one of the biggest importers of Chinese goods.
- Thousands of Indian jobs are dependent on these Chinese goods. An alternate needs to be provided to them before boycotting Chinese goods.
- India has already performed poorly in terms of exports. If Chinese government retaliates with sanctions we might see a cold war like situation as that between USA-China but unlike them we are not so econimically well off. Thus India will have to improve it's export capabilities first.
If Chinese goods are boycotted then the prices of most of the goods in our market will go up like mobile phones, TV, medicines, renewable electricity, several machines (and thus, in turn, the finished products made by them) and it will be the final consumer who will have to bear the impact of this price rise. Keeping in mind the boycott would also result in severe job loss in India.
This seems like a situation where I call for trouble on my own! India will be the one who has the most to lose with the kind of economic dependence we currently have on China.
However, this isn't the first time such a demand has been booming in the media. Several politicians or other media organizations have brought to light the military standoff at the border or China's support for Pakistan or lack of sympathy towards India and have requested to boycott Chinese goods. But from past experience, this trend of boycotting Chinese goods is just a passing cloud that fades away over a matter of a few months.
Is India-China war a possibility?
The situation escalates as armies confront along the Ladakh, Sikkim, and Arunachal Pradesh borders. With the present geopolitical situation that the USA is trying to exploit, it is acting as a warmonger. Fear and doubts are seen in the minds of many. Adding to all the media is exaggerating the situation.
Let's analyze the situation prospectively. In 1962 India for the first time fought a war with China post-independence. So it would be entirely wrong to say that a war can never happen. However, if we compare the situations of the present and the past, they do not paint the same picture.
- Back then India followed the policy of non-alignment movement which still holds true on paper but not in reality. Even back then India was partially tilted towards USSR, but due to the Cuban missile crisis, USSR couldn't afford to lose the support of China.
- Currently, India-Russia relations are considerably strong but at the same time, India-USA has become strong allies. India and the USA have also made a strategic pact to help each other if either of the countries is in a war against China.
- China got integrated with the global economy in 1978 and India in 1991. These two are two huge economic giants, and a war in these two countries will affect the economy of the entire globe. This wasn't the case back then.
- Although both have adopted "no first use policy" we must always keep in mind that both India and China are nuclear-powered countries. The countries weren't nuclear powered back then.
Comments
Post a Comment